population reproduction. Types and features of population reproduction in various groups of countries and regions of the world
In accordance with the change in the totality of demographic indicators, it is customary to distinguish three main historical types of population reproduction. The first and earliest of these is the so-called archetype of population reproduction. It dominated the primitive society, which was at the stage of the appropriating economy, and is now very rare, for example, among some tribes of the Indians of the Amazon. These peoples have such a high mortality rate that their numbers are declining.
The second type of reproduction, "traditional" or "patriarchal", dominates the agrarian or early industrial society. The main distinguishing features are very high birth and death rates, low average life expectancy. Having many children is a tradition that contributes to the better functioning of the family in an agrarian society. High mortality is a consequence of the low standard of living of people, their hard work and poor nutrition, insufficient development of education and medicine. This type of reproduction is typical for many underdeveloped countries - Nigeria, Niger, India, Somalia, Uganda, Afghanistan, Yemen, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and especially for Ethiopia and Angola, where the birth rate is 45 ‰, the death rate is 20 ‰, and the average life expectancy is only 43 years - 47 years.
In a significant part of developing countries (Mexico, Brazil, Philippines, Pakistan, Libya, Thailand, South Africa, etc.), the "traditional" type of population reproduction has changed over the past decades. The death rate has dropped to 6-10‰ due to advances in medicine. But the traditionally high birth rate is largely preserved. As a result, the population growth here is very high - 2.5-3.0% per year. It is these countries with a “transitional” type of population reproduction that predetermine the high growth rates of the world population at the end of the 20th century.
The third, so-called "modern" or "rational" type of population reproduction, is generated by the transition from an agrarian to an industrial economy. This type of reproduction is characterized by low birth rates, near-average mortality rates, low natural growth, and high average life expectancy. It is typical for economically developed countries with a higher standard of living and culture of the inhabitants. The low birth rate here is closely related to the conscious regulation of the size of families, and the high percentage of elderly people primarily affects the death rate.
Demographic policy is a set of economic, administrative propaganda measures with the help of which the state influences the birth rate in the direction it wants.
In a broad sense, population policy is population policy. The object can be the population of the country, its individual regions, cohorts of the population, families of certain types. The historical goal of the state's demographic policy is to achieve a demographic optimum.
2. Machine-building complex - a set of industries that produce equipment for all departments of the economy, as well as many consumer goods.
The USA, Japan and Germany are leaders in the world mechanical engineering. These countries produce the most diverse products. The top ten also includes France, Great Britain, Italy, Spain, which have a very wide range of mechanical engineering, China, Canada and Brazil.
Four machine-building regions can also be distinguished on the economic map of the world. The first is North America, where almost all engineering products are produced. The second region is foreign (in relation to the CIS) Europe, which mainly produces mass machine-building products; some of the latest industries are also highly developed in it. The third is East and Southeast Asia, in which Japan is in the lead, also combining mass engineering products with high-tech products. The fourth region is the CIS countries, which are distinguished by a large volume of production of machinery and equipment, but lagging behind in the development of high-tech industries.
3. Rules of personal environmental behavior in everyday chest and household activities.
· If possible, be in open areas of the area;
Do not leave young children unattended;
Do not pick up suspicious items;
· Do not approach emergency and dead trees;
Do not swim in places where swimming is prohibited;
Do not approach wild animals;
In cases of an emergency arising as a result of a dangerous natural phenomenon, natural or other disaster, man-made accident or catastrophe, aggressive behavior of wild animals, as well as actions (inaction) of individuals that may or have caused human casualties or damage to human health, it is necessary to use the following phone numbers:
103 - ambulance
102 - police
101 - Ministry of Emergency Situations and Fire Protection
Nature- a huge source of spiritual and physical development of man. Try to spend more time in contact with nature. Hiking trips, excursions and walks in nature will enrich you with new knowledge and impressions, help you study a number of school subjects, make you stronger, dexterous and enduring.
A truly cultured person is one who loves nature. To love nature, one must understand and know it well.
Communicating with nature, try to identify the landforms of your area and the rocks that make them up, the features of surface and underground waters, soil and vegetation cover. Watch the weather change, the life of animals and plants. At the same time, use your knowledge, skills and abilities acquired in the study of natural history, geography, botany, zoology and other subjects. Track how nature affects human economic activity, how nature changes as a result of this activity.
Try to find out what positive changes have been made in nature by man, what are the negative effects of man on nature and the measures for their correction. Record all your observations, reasoning, conclusions in a special diary. Geologists, geographers, zoologists and botanists call a field diary a diary where all observations and data obtained by them during a direct study of nature are recorded.
The best way to collect materials while hiking in nature is by taking photographs and filming, which allow you to collect rich material about nature without damaging it.
Demography, population reproduction, natural increase, population explosion
The population of the world is the subject of study of demography - the science of the patterns of population reproduction, its size, natural growth, age and sex composition, etc., and population geography, which comprehensively studies territorial population groups and systems of settlements, the features of their formation and development various socio-economic and natural conditions. Ethnogeography is the science of the origin of peoples and the relationships between them.
Interest in population numbers has been around for a long time. The history of such censuses usually begins with the censuses of the United States (1790), Sweden and Finland (1800), England, France, Denmark and Norway (1801). In our country, the beginning of population accounting was laid in the 19th century.
A general idea of the changes in population during the last stage of human history is given by the following graph:
Graph 1.
Growth of world population and urban population from 1800 to 2020
The upper horizontal scale shows the urban population as a percentage.
Graph 2. Population growth in our era.
The graph shows that the world population grew very slowly until the Middle Ages. Over the entire history of mankind, more than 80 billion people were born on Earth and about 20 thousand generations have changed.
Never before has there been such rapid growth as in the middle and second half of the 20th century. Currently, growth rates continue to outpace scientists' forecasts.
population reproduction
is a set of processes of fertility, mortality and natural increase, which provide a change of generations.
Reproduction of the population is determined by fertility and mortality, as well as migration.
Natural population growth
- the excess of birth rate over mortality, that is, the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths for a certain period of time. Natural population growth can be positive or negative.
Negative natural population growth means that more people die in the country than are born.
Formula: EP=((P-C)/H)*1000, where EP is the natural increase, P is the birth rate, C is the death rate, N is the population. Natural growth is measured in ppm.
Demographic Transition Theory:
The transition to settled life, the spread of cities, the emergence of industrial production, the improvement of living conditions led to an increase in population growth.
As socio-economic development progresses, demographic indicators are also consistently changing.
High birth rates and high death rates in the most developed countries have been replaced by low birth rates and low death rates, and the population is stabilizing or even changing from growth to decline.
Demographic forecast.
According to the most recent and relatively realistic forecasts of demographers, the world's population will reach 8 billion by 2025, and 9 billion by 2050.
Population growth will complicate the solution of global problems, primarily food.
Types of population reproduction.
There are three main historical types of population reproduction.
The first and earliest of these is the so-called archetype of population reproduction. He dominated primitive society and is now very rare, for example, among some tribes of the Indians of the Amazon. At this stage of development, a person is highly dependent on natural conditions, the birth rate and mortality are low. The archetype is characterized by extremely low population growth rates.
The traditional type of population reproduction dominates in agrarian or in the early stages of an industrial society, when industry is just beginning to develop. The main distinguishing features are very high birth and death rates, low average life expectancy. Having many children is a tradition that contributes to the better functioning of the family in an agrarian society. High mortality is a consequence of the low standard of living of people, their hard work and poor nutrition, and the insufficient development of medicine. This type of reproduction is typical for many underdeveloped countries - Nigeria, Bangladesh and especially for Ethiopia, the average life expectancy is only 43 years.
In a significant part of the developing countries (Mexico, Brazil, the Philippines, etc.), the "traditional" type of population reproduction has changed over the past decades. The death rate has dropped to 6-10% due to advances in medicine.
The so-called modern or rational type of population reproduction is generated by the transition from an agrarian to an industrial economy. This type of reproduction is characterized by low birth rates, near-average mortality rates, low natural growth, and high average life expectancy. The modern type of reproduction is characteristic of economically developed countries with a higher standard of living and culture of the inhabitants. The low birth rate here is closely related to the conscious regulation of the size of families, and the high percentage of elderly people primarily affects the death rate.
Geographic differences in population reproduction.
The difference in the type of reproduction leads to uneven population growth across regions.
In African countries, the birth rate is very high, and the death rate is gradually decreasing. Very high rates of natural population growth in Asia and Latin America. This means that developing countries will continue to have a decisive influence on the size and reproduction of the population, primarily determining the demographic situation throughout the world.
The first and second type of population reproduction.
Scientists distinguish two types of population reproduction.
The first type is characterized by low rates of fertility, mortality and natural increase, typical for the economically developed countries of Europe, North America, Japan, Australia. These countries are characterized by the processes of demographic crisis (narrowed reproduction).
The second type of reproduction is determined by a high birth rate and a relatively high death rate, and is typical for the countries of Latin America, Asia and Africa. These countries are characterized by the processes of a population explosion.
(extended reproduction).
demographic policy.
Demographic policy is a set of economic, administrative propaganda measures with the help of which the state influences the natural movement of the population, the solution of population problems specific to a given country.
In countries of the first type of reproduction, they pursue a policy aimed at increasing the birth rate (Russia, France, Japan).
In countries of the second type, they pursue a policy of reducing the birth rate (China, India).
Conclusions.
The population of the Earth is growing very rapidly, by about 80-85 million people a year
In developing countries in the middle of the 20th century, expanded reproduction of the population, which was called the population explosion, prevailed.
To regulate population growth, many countries of the world are pursuing a demographic policy.
Reproduction (natural movement) of the population - a set of processes of fertility, mortality and natural increase, which ensures the continuous renewal and change of human generations. Or. population reproduction is the process of generation change as a result of natural (growth) movement.
Key demographics
Absolute indicators:
- natural increase is the difference between the number of births and deaths
- mechanical growth - the difference between the number of immigrants and emigrants.
Relative:
- birth rate - the ratio of the total number of births in the country for the year to the total population of the country, measured in thousands (i.e. the number of births per thousand inhabitants;
- mortality rate - the ratio of the total number of deaths in the country for the year to the population of the country, measured in thousands (i.e. the number of deaths per thousand inhabitants);
- natural increase rate is the difference between the birth rate and the death rate.
These ratios are measured in ppm (%o), but can be measured in percentages (%), i.e. calculations in this case are carried out per 100 inhabitants.
The "formula" of reproduction is a type of recording of relative demographic indicators: birth rate - death rate = natural increase rate.
The main types of population reproduction
There are three types of population reproduction:
- Constricted reproduction;
- Simple reproduction;
- Extended reproduction.
Shrinking Reproduction - When a living population does not reproduce replacements, death rates exceed birth rates. This type is typical for countries with "zero" or close to it natural growth or with negative growth, i.e. countries where the death rate exceeds the birth rate. Demographers call this phenomenon depopulation or demographic crisis.
Depopulation(from French depopulatin) a decrease in the population of a country, region as a result of narrowed reproduction, leading to absolute loss.
The decline in the birth rate in industrialized countries is usually associated with the spread of an urban lifestyle, in which children for parents turn out to be a "burden". In industrial production, the service sector requires highly qualified personnel. The consequence of this is the need for long-term studies, lasting up to 21-23 years. The decision to give birth to a second or third child is strongly influenced by a woman's high involvement in the labor process, her desire to make a career, to be financially independent.
Simple reproduction means that the generation of children replacing the generation of parents and the generation of parents are equal in their absolute numbers. In such a population, a permanent sex and age structure (stationary type) is formed. The total population is not increasing; under certain unfavorable conditions, there is a high probability of a transition to narrowed reproduction. It is characterized by low birth rates, death rates and, accordingly, natural increase. (This method has become widespread in the economically developed countries of Europe and North America).
Socio-economic reasons causing low birth rates:
- a high level of socio-economic development (incomes are growing in the family, and the number of children is decreasing);
- high level of urbanization - 75%, rapid income growth,
- change in the status of women, emancipation and the emergence of a new value system;
- increase in the proportion of older ages;
- "aging of the nation" (Great Britain, France), a decrease in the age of the young;
- consequences of wars, military conflicts, terrorism,
- occupational injuries, man-made disasters (car accidents kill up to 250 thousand people annually), road traffic accidents (up to 60 thousand people die);
- mortality from diseases (AIDS, cancer);
- natural disasters.
Expanded reproduction is characterized by an increase in each new generation entering into life compared to the number of outgoing generations. A progressive type of sex and age structure is formed in the population, its absolute number is growing. This type of population reproduction is characterized by high and very high birth rates and natural increase and relatively low mortality rates. It is characteristic, first of all, for developing countries (the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America).
Socio-economic reasons causing high birth rates of the population:
- low level of economic development, with the predominance of agriculture (developing countries);
- low level of urbanization - 41% (in rural areas, the birth rate is higher);
- a peculiar social structure, religious customs that encourage large families;
- servitude of women, early marriages;
- the use of the achievements of modern medicine to combat epidemic diseases, the improvement of sanitary culture;
- prohibitions on family planning in Muslim countries.
After gaining independence, these countries were able to make wider use of the achievements of modern medicine, sanitation and hygiene, primarily to combat epidemic diseases. This led to a rather sharp reduction in mortality. The birth rate, for the most part, remained at a high level.
Peculiarities of population reproduction in various groups of countries and regions of the world
Throughout the history of mankind, reproduction has undergone great quantitative and qualitative changes that have not been smooth and gradual. They were of an intermittent nature. Qualitative and quantitative changes are associated with major socio-economic upheavals. The development of industrial production, the change in the social status of women, the change in personal and social psychology in relation to children led to the evolution of fertility.
The reduction in the birth rate is universal, but begins in different countries at different times, occurs at different rates, but gradually covers the whole world. In the world as a whole, the total fertility rate has declined from 45% in 1900-1905. up to 37.3% in 1950-54, up to 26% in the second half of the 80s, up to 23% in the late 90s, up to 19% in 2010. However, differences in the level of socio-economic development of different countries and regions of the world predetermine a significant difference in the main demographic indicators.
Despite significant advances in the control of smallpox, cholera, plague, malaria and other diseases, overall mortality remains high in many developing countries. The reasons for this are the low level of development of the productive forces, crop failures, famine, epidemics, and so on. Despite the youngest composition of the population, the highest rates of the total mortality rate are typical for the African continent (13%), they are especially high in Western, Eastern and Central Africa (respectively 14, 15, 16%). In Mali, Guinea-Bissau, the Gambia, the Central African Republic, Angola, the total mortality rate is over 20%.
Countries in North and South Africa, characterized by a higher level of socio-economic development, have lower mortality rates (8%).
The lowest mortality rates are found in the Americas and Asia (7% and 8%). Regional differences in mortality are determined not only by the age structure of the population, but also by the standard of living of the population, the development of medicine and healthcare. Currently, the number of countries with very low mortality is growing. The extremely low mortality that occurs in a number of countries of the world, Qatar and Kuwait (2%), Oman, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Costa Rica (4%), in the island countries of the West Indies and Oceania, is due to a complex of interrelated reasons:
- High mortality in the recent past has led to a change in the age composition of the population - a sharp decrease in the proportion of old people.
- The persistently high birth rate has led to an increase in the proportion of children in the population.
- Advances in medicine and improvement in the living conditions of the population have led to a decrease in mortality.
- "Island isolation" (for island states) serves to some extent as a barrier to the spread of infectious diseases.
- A high proportion of immigrants at a young age in a number of states in Southwest Asia.
At the same time, in a number of countries, the overall mortality rate remains quite high. So, in Nepal, Laos it is 14%, Bhutan - 15, Cambodia - 16, Afghanistan - 22%.
The declining proportion of children, caused by the constant decline in the birth rate, and the growth of the proportion of the old generation in developed countries have led to an increase in the overall mortality rate. In most developed countries, the crude mortality rate is either at or above the world average. The socio-economic crisis that has engulfed the countries of Eastern Europe and the CIS has led to a sharp increase in mortality. According to this indicator, this group of states “outstripped” the countries of Northern and Western Europe, although it is far from them in terms of the age structure of the population. This figure is also very high in Russia.
The variation in infant mortality rates is very large. In the distant past, the value of this indicator reached 250-300% (in African countries, infant mortality of about 300% was observed recently), and in the years of mass epidemics, famine and other disasters, it even reached 350-400%. In the early 1990s, in countries with the lowest infant mortality (Sweden, Finland, Japan), this figure dropped to 4-5%. In many developed countries of Western and Northern Europe, USA, Canada, Australia it is 6-7%.
Even though Europe has the lowest infant mortality, the dispersion of this indicator across countries is quite high. In the former socialist countries, this coefficient is 2, 3, 4 times higher than in many other countries. If in Albania, Macedonia, Yugoslavia, Moldova, the mortality of children under the age of 1 year was 33, 24, 18, 22 per 1000 births, respectively, then in the Netherlands, France, Switzerland and other countries 6%, Finland 4%.
Infant mortality is exceptionally high in Africa. In 25 countries this figure fluctuates between 50-100% and in 22 it exceeds 100%. In Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, Mozambique, about 150 out of every 1,000 children born die in the first year of life.
At the same time, in Reunion, the infant mortality rate is approaching the best world standards and is 8/o. Infant mortality is low in Mauritius (19 people), Seychelles (12 people). Tunisia, Botswana and South Africa have less than 50 deaths per 1000 births.
The infant mortality rate in Asia varies greatly: if in Japan it is one of the lowest in the world, then in 6 states this figure exceeds 100%: Nepal (102), Cambodia and Bangladesh (108), Yemen (109), Bhutan (138) and Afghanistan (163%). Infant mortality remains high (over 50%) in Iraq, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, and Laos.
The highest infant mortality in South America is in Bolivia (71%), Haiti (78), Peru (60%). Along with them, a group of Caribbean states stands out (Antilles, Barbados, Guadeloupe, Grenada, Dominica, Cuba, Martinique, Puerto Rico, Jamaica), as well as Costa Rica, Guiana, in which this figure is less than 15 deaths per 1000 newborns . Very low infant mortality in Canada and the USA (7-8%).
At the moment, according to the nature of population reproduction, developing countries can be divided into three groups.
The first group is formed by countries that are at the end of the first, the beginning of the second phases of the demographic transition, i.e. at the stage of a population explosion. They are characterized by high birth rates and natural increase. There are more than 5 children per woman in these countries, and the natural increase is more than 20 per 1,000 inhabitants. Most of the countries in this subgroup are among the least developed. These are the countries of Western, Central and Eastern Africa, some countries of Southwest Asia, Afghanistan, Laos, and partly the countries of Latin America and Oceania. In 25 countries in these regions, a doubling of the population at current growth rates could occur within twenty years. (Togo and Libya could double in 19 years, Sao Tome and Principe in 20, Niger, Swaziland and Chad in 21 years).
The second group of countries includes developing countries that have already overcome the phase of the population explosion. In these countries, over the past 15-20 years, there has been not only a decrease in the total mortality rate, but also in the total birth rate, as a result of which the natural increase rate has also begun to decline. The doubling period of the population in these countries ranges from 35 to 55 years.
The third group of countries has entered the third stage of the demographic transition. The birth rate in these countries is below 20 per 1,000 inhabitants, and the natural increase is 10 ppm. Prominent examples of countries in this subgroup are China, Thailand, Argentina.
Among the developed countries, three groups can also be distinguished according to the nature of reproduction.
First The group includes countries where the natural increase is at the level of 0.3 - 0.55%. These include the USA, Canada, Ireland, Norway. At this growth rate, a doubling could occur in 100-200 years.
Secondly The group includes countries with a natural increase of less than 0.3%. The total fertility rate has declined in recent years to the level of 1.5, i.e. these countries do not provide a simple renewal of generations.
Most countries have become states with zero population growth. These are, for example, Austria, Belgium, Spain.
Third The group includes countries characterized by natural decline (depopulation) (most countries of Eastern Europe, Georgia, Sweden, Germany). These are countries that have entered a period of demographic crisis. They are characterized by aging from below and aging from above. In the first case, the proportion of residents of older age groups increases in the structure of the population as a result of a sharp decline in the birth rate and a decrease in the proportion of younger generations, and in the second case, due to an increase in life expectancy of the population, which leads to a significant increase in the proportion of older generations.
At the moment, many states are trying to regulate the demographic situation in the country by pursuing a demographic policy. Demographic policy is understood as a system of administrative, economic and other measures by which the state influences the birth rate in the desired direction. In countries with high natural growth, demographic policy is aimed at reducing the population. China is an example. The goal of the government of this state - the most populous in the world - is to abruptly stop population growth by creating a family with one child. As a result, tangible results have been achieved, but nevertheless, the population of China continues to grow at a rapid pace.
India followed the same path, where, as early as 1951, the family planning population policy was adopted as the official state policy. However, in this country it was less successful. The natural increase has decreased, but it is still very high. In the PRC and India, the age of marriage was raised, families with 12 children were promoted, mass voluntary sterilization of the population was carried out, contraceptives were widely promoted, and, as a rule, marriages during the period of study at institutes were prohibited.
Demographic policy aimed at reducing natural population growth is carried out in many states of Latin America and Asia. It develops most poorly in Muslim countries, where large families are encouraged by religion, and in Africa, which is associated with its weak development.
In many developed countries characterized by low natural growth, demographic policy is aimed at increasing the population by increasing the birth rate. The measures used by the governments of these states to stimulate the birth rate are different and include cash payments and family benefits, benefits for large families, expanding the network of childcare facilities, changing the age of marriage, expanding the property rights of mothers and children in the event of a family breakup, and a ban on abortions (Germany).
So the world population continues to grow. It is necessary to achieve natural stabilization of the number of inhabitants of the Earth. And this can be done only by solving many socio-economic problems, especially in underdeveloped countries.
Fertility in the countries of the world
| No. p.p. | Country name | Birth rate |
| 1 | Niger | 51.60 |
| 2 | Uganda | 47.84 |
| 3 | Mali | 46.44 |
| 4 | Bukina Faso | 44.33 |
| 5 | Somalia | 43.70 |
| 6 | Angola | 43.63 |
| 7 | Ethiopia | 43.66 |
| 8 | Democratic Republic of the Congo | 42.63 |
| 9 | Liberia | 42.25 |
| 10 | Burundi | 41.76 |
| 11 | Malawi | 41.68 |
| 12 | Republic of the Congo | 41.37 |
| 13 | Chad | 40.86 |
| 14 | Zambia | 40.24 |
| 15 | West Sahara | 39.54 |
| 16 | Mayotte | 39.26 |
| 17 | Benin | 39.22 |
| 18 | Siera Leone | 39.08 |
| 19 | Sao Tome and Prispipe | 38.54 |
| 20 | Afghanistan | 38.37 |
| 21 | Madagascar | 38.14 |
| 22 | Rwanda | 38.06 |
| 23 | Mozambique | 37.98 |
| 24 | Gambia | 37.80 |
| 25 | Guinea | 37.52 |
| 26 | Gaza Strip | 36.93 |
| 27 | Senegal | 36.84 |
| 28 | Nigeria | 36.65 |
| 29 | Kenya | 36.64 |
| 30 | Equatorial Guinea | 36.52 |
| 31 | Togo | 36.49 |
| 32 | Guinea - Bissau | 35.97 |
| 33 | Gabon | 35.57 |
| 34 | Yemen | 35.32 |
| 35 | Comoros | 35.23 |
| 36 | Oman | 34.79 |
| 37 | Tanzania | 34.29 |
| 38 | Eritrea | 34.20 |
| 39 | Mauritania | 34.11 |
| 40 | Cameroon | 34.10 |
| 41 | Laos | 33.96 |
| 42 | Sudan | 33.74 |
| 43 | Central African Republic | 32.75 |
| 44 | Ivory Coast | 32.11 |
| 45 | Zimbabwe | 31.49 |
| 46 | Marshall Islands | 30.70 |
| 47 | Kiribati | 30.20 |
| 48 | Iraq | 30.90 |
| 49 | haiti | 29.10 |
| 50 | Ghana | 29.10 |
| 51 | Saudi Arabia | 28.55 |
| 52 | Paraguay | 28.17 |
| 53 | Swaziland | 28.09 |
| 54 | Samoa Islands | 28.06 |
| 55 | Guatemala | 27.98 |
| 56 | Solomon islands | 27.69 |
| 57 | Papua New Guinea | 27.57 |
| 58 | Jordan | 27.38 |
| 59 | Belize | 27.33 |
| 60 | Tajikistan | 26.90 |
| 61 | Djibouti | 26.34 |
| 62 | Honduras | 26.28 |
| 63 | East Timor | 26.25 |
| 64 | Philippines | 26.01 |
| 65 | Pakistan | 25.89 |
| 66 | Bolivia | 25.82 |
| 67 | Cambodia | 25.73 |
| 68 | West Bank | 25.44 |
| 69 | Egypt | 25.43 |
| 70 | Salvador | 25.31 |
| 71 | Libya | 25.13 |
| 72 | Syria | 25.00 |
| 73 | Bangladesh | 24.68 |
| 74 | Lesotho | 24.14 |
| 75 | Nauru | 23.90 |
| 76 | Cape Verde | 23.50 |
| 77 | Kyrgyzstan | 23.44 |
| 78 | American Samoa | 23.31 |
| 79 | Nicaragua | 23.25 |
| 80 | Nepal | 23.18 |
| 81 | Tuvalu | 23.11 |
| 82 | micronesia | 23.10 |
| 83 | Botswana | 22.89 |
| 84 | Namibia | 22.51 |
| 85 | Dominican Republic | 22.39 |
| 86 | Malaysia | 22.24 |
| 87 | Northern Mariana Islands | 21.97 |
| 88 | Fiji | 21.92 |
| 89 | Kuwait | 21.79 |
| 90 | India | 21.72 |
| 91 | Vanuatu | 21.53 |
| 92 | Grenada | 21.32 |
| 93 | Mongolia | 21.05 |
| 94 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 20.79 |
| 95 | Ecuador | 20.77 |
| 96 | Venezuela | 20.61 |
| 97 | Panama | 20.18 |
| 98 | Butane | 20.07 |
| 99 | South Africa | 19.93 |
| 100 | Average fertility rate in the world | 19.86 |
| 101 | Tonga | 19.84 |
| 102 | Israel | 19.77 |
| 103 | Morocco | 19.72 |
| 104 | Mexico | 19.71 |
| 105 | Turkmenistan | 19.69 |
| 106 | Jamaica | 19.68 |
| 107 | Peru | 19.38 |
| 108 | Indonesia | 18.84 |
| 109 | Turkey | 18.66 |
| ON | Brazil | 18.43 |
| 111 | Guyana | 18.31 |
| 112 | Brunei | 18.20 |
| 113 | Colombia | 18.09 |
| 114 | Argentina | 17.94 |
| 115 | Vietnam | 17.73 |
| 116 | Saint Kitts and Nevis | 17.67 |
| 117 | Azerbaijan | 17.62 |
| 118 | Uzbekistan | 17.58 |
| 119 | Costa Rica | 17.43 |
| 120 | Iran | 17.17 |
| 121 | Lebanon | 17.10 |
| 122 | New Caledonia | 17.04 |
| 123 | Bahrain | 17.01 |
| 124 | Burma | 16.97 |
| 125 | Algeria | 16.90 |
| 126 | Suriname | 16.80 |
| 127 | Kazakhstan | 16.60 |
| 128 | Antigua and Barbuda | 16.59 |
| 129 | Bahamas | 16.41 |
| 130 | Sri Lanka | 16.26 |
| 131 | Cook Islands | 16.18 |
| 132 | UAE | 16.02 |
| 133 | French Polynesia | 15.91 |
| 134 | Seychelles | 15.81 |
| 135 | Dominican Republic | 15.73 |
| 136 | Qatar | 15.61 |
| 137 | Tunisia | 15.42 |
| 138 | Albania | 15.29 |
| 139 | Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 15.27 |
| 140 | Saint Lucia | 15.10 |
| 141 | North Korea | 14.82 |
| 142 | Greenland | 14.76 |
| 143 | Chile | 14.64 |
| 144 | British Virgin Islands | 14.62 |
| 145 | Maldives | 14.55 |
| 146 | Mauritius | 14.41 |
| 147 | Trinidad and Tobago | 14.36 |
| 148 | Ireland | 14.23 |
| 149 | Netherlands Antilles | 14.19 |
| 150 | Gibraltar | 14.03 |
| 151 | China | 14.00 |
| 152 | New Zealand | 13.94 |
| 153 | Uruguay | 13.91 |
| 154 | USA | 13.83 |
| 155 | Iceland | 13.43 |
| 156 | Thailand | 13.38 |
| 157 | Faroe Islands | 13.04 |
| 158 | Anguilla | 13.02 |
| 159 | Aruba | 12.79 |
| 160 | Saint Pierre and Miquelon | 12.74 |
| 161 | Armenia | 12.65 |
| 162 | France | 12.57 |
| 163 | Barbados | 12.55 |
| 164 | Australia | 12.47 |
| 165 | Cayman islands | 12.36 |
| 166 | Montserrat | 12.36 |
| 167 | Macedonia | 11.97 |
| 168 | Virgin Islands | 11.95 |
| 169 | Luxembourg | 11.73 |
| 170 | Puerto Rico | 11.72 |
| 171 | Bermuda | 11.57 |
| 172 | Cyprus | 11.32 |
| 173 | Palau | 11.20 |
| 174 | Montenegro | 11.14 |
| 175 | Cuba | 11.13 |
| 176 | Saint Helena | 11.13 |
| 177 | Moldova | 11.12 |
| 178 | Russia | 11.10 |
| 179 | Norway | 10.99 |
| 180 | Isle Of Man | 10.77 |
| 181 | Georgia | 10.66 |
| 182 | Great Britain | 10.65 |
| 183 | Slovakia | 10.60 |
| 184 | Denmark | 10.54 |
| 185 | Romania | 10.53 |
| 186 | Netherlands | 10.40 |
| 187 | Finland | 10.38 |
| 188 | Estonia | 10.37 |
| 189 | Malta | 10.36 |
| 190 | Andorra | 10.35 |
| 191 | Portugal | 10.29 |
| 192 | Canada | 10.28 |
| 193 | Belgium | 10.15 |
| 194 | Sweden | 10.13 |
| 195 | Poland | 10.04 |
| 196 | Latvia | 9.78 |
| 197 | Liechtenstein | 9.75 |
| 198 | Spain | 9.72 |
| 199 | Belarus | 9.71 |
| 200 | San Marino | 9.68 |
| 201 | Croatia | 9.64 |
| 202 | Ukraine | 9.60 |
| 203 | Switzerland | 9.59 |
| 204 | Bulgaria | 9.51 |
| 205 | Hungary | 9.51 |
| 206 | Greece | 9.45 |
| 207 | Serbia | 9.19 |
| 208 | Lithuania | 9.11 |
| 209 | Monaco | 9.10 |
| 210 | Taiwan | 8.99 |
| 211 | Slovenia | 8.97 |
| 212 | South Korea | 8.93 |
| 213 | Macau | 8.88 |
| 214 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 8.85 |
| 215 | Czech Republic | 8.83 |
| 216 | Singapore | 8.82 |
| 217 | Austria | 8.65 |
| 218 | Jersey | 8.63 |
| 219 | Guernsey | 8.55 |
| 220 | Germany | 8.18 |
| 221 | Italy | 8.18 |
| 222 | Japan | 7.64 |
| 223 | Hong Kong | 7.42 |
As a result of mastering the material of the chapter, the student must: know
- basic theories of population reproduction;
- features of the formation of demographic policy; be able to
- classify the types of population reproduction;
- solve problems related to the assessment of population reproduction; own
- methods for evaluating demographic policy;
- skills in working with population reproduction data.
The main types of population reproduction
The population dynamics is determined by the process of population reproduction. Under reproduction of the population understand the totality of the processes of fertility, mortality and natural increase, which ensure the continuous renewal and change of human generations, i.e. constant renewal of generations of people as a result of a combination of birth and death processes.
As human civilization developed, the nature of population reproduction changed. During its existence, human society has gone through three main stages of development - the stage of the appropriating economy, the stage of the agrarian economy and the stage of the industrial economy, which corresponded to three historical types of population reproduction:
- archaic;
- traditional;
- modern (industrial).
archaic type reproduction of the population covered several tens of thousands of years of the initial history of the human race, in primitive society, when appropriating economy(gathering, hunting, fishing), and in conditions of extremely strong dependence of man on nature. The population of the Earth during this period was characterized by a very small number and extremely low growth rates. This type is very rare. For example, it can be found among some Amazonian Indian tribes. These peoples have such a high mortality rate that their numbers are declining.
traditional type(patriarchal) reproduction of the population existed for several millennia and corresponded to the period of actual domination agricultural economy. The main distinguishing features of this type of population reproduction are: high birth rates approaching the physiological maximum (40-50%o) and very high mortality rates, which “quenched” the high birth rate, resulting in low natural population growth. It is mortality that determines population growth in this type, since it was possible to achieve the desired number of children only by their frequent births. Having many children is a tradition that contributes to the better functioning of the family in an agrarian society. High mortality is a consequence of the low standard of living of people, their hard work and poor nutrition, and the insufficient development of medicine. This type of reproduction is characteristic of many underdeveloped countries.
Modern (industrial) type of appeared during the transition to an industrial type of economy. A new stage began with the industrial revolution in England in the XVIII-XIX centuries, and in the XX century. covered all the developed countries of the world. The decrease in the dependence of the individual on nature, the advances in medicine and health care, and the general increase in the standard of living led to a noticeable decrease in mortality rates and an increase in average life expectancy, which entailed (while maintaining a high birth rate) an avalanche-like increase in natural growth.
At this stage, this type of reproduction is characterized by a low birth rate, close to average mortality, low natural increase and high average life expectancy. It is typical for economically developed countries with a higher standard of living and culture of the inhabitants. The low birth rate here is closely related to the conscious regulation of the size of families, and the high percentage of elderly people primarily affects the death rate.
Currently, humanity is entering the era of post-industrial society. The economy acquires a new look, social attitudes change, new values are formed. The type of reproduction is gradually changing from industrial to post-industrial, in which having children for a family becomes optional. For post-industrial type population reproduction is characterized by: low mortality, low birth rate and low natural increase. This type of reproduction is becoming more widespread in the developed countries of Europe, in the USA and Japan.
Depending on the ratio of fertility and mortality rates, reproduction can be distinguished:
- expanded reproduction of the population, which corresponds to a steady excess of births over deaths, ensuring constant and stable population growth;
- simple reproduction of the population, in which the ratio of births and deaths is formed in such a way that the population is renewed on an unchanged scale;
- narrowed reproduction of the population, in which the death rate exceeds the birth rate and there are not enough children born to quantitatively replace the generation of parents.
The type of population reproduction, formed by the processes of fertility and mortality in the present and past periods, determines the ratio of the population of different age groups. At the beginning of the XX century. Swedish statistician and demographer G. Sunberg introduced into science the concept of three types of age structures of the population: progressive, stationary and regressive (Fig. 7.1):
- the progressive type is characterized by a high proportion of children and a low proportion of the older generation in the entire population. Its formation is based on an extended type of reproduction. The age pyramid has the shape of a triangle, the base of which depends on the birth rate;
- with a stationary type, which is based on a simple type of reproduction, the age pyramid has the shape of a bell with an almost balanced proportion of children's and senile age groups;
- the narrowed type of reproduction leads to the formation of a regressive type, the age pyramid of which has the shape of an urn. It is characterized by a relatively high proportion of elderly and old people and a low proportion of children.
Rice 7.1.
1 - progressive; 2 - stationary; 3 - regressive
However, in the most simplified form, one can speak of two types of population reproduction.
The first type of population reproduction is called archetype. It dominates in a pre-class society living in an appropriating economy. This type of reproduction is characterized by a high birth and death rate with a slight increase in population. It should be noted that already at this stage of the development of human society, there are mechanisms of social control over the process of giving birth to people in the form of various taboos that forbid sexual contacts at certain periods, lifelong widowhood, etc. Such mechanisms affecting reproductive behavior, along with high infant mortality, limited population growth, in accordance with the natural capabilities of the territory, capable of supporting the livelihoods of the people living on it.
The emergence and development of agriculture, the economy and forms of social life have largely changed the type of population reproduction. The birth rate increased sharply and the death rate decreased. This responded to the society's needs for population growth. This type of population reproduction is called traditional. It is characterized by an early age of marriage and a high birth rate (the total birth rate reached 50 or more per 1,000 people). Mortality in the traditional type of reproduction consisted of two components: mortality in relatively favorable periods as a result of natural causes and catastrophic mortality that occurs during periods of famine, natural disasters, wars, and epidemics. The average life expectancy ranged from 20 to 30 years and rarely exceeded 35 years.
The modern, or rational, type of reproduction appears in connection with a new turn in the historical development of society - the transition from an agrarian economy to an industrial one. This type of reproduction is characterized by a low birth rate, low mortality, low population growth rates with low infant mortality, and a significant increase in average life expectancy.
At present, the presence of all types of population reproduction is observed in the world.
Economically developed, rich countries are characterized by a rational type of population reproduction, while developing countries mainly adhere to the traditional type of reproduction. On our planet, populations of people with the dominance of the archetype of population reproduction have survived to this day. Thus, in developing countries there are high rates of natural increase, combined with high infant mortality and life expectancy, not exceeding an average of 60 years. While in developed countries the natural increase is insignificant, infant mortality is 7-8 times lower than in developing countries, and the average life expectancy reaches an average of 71 years.
Thus, the demographic situation in various territories is formed under the influence of a number of historical phenomena that determine the demographic, and in particular the reproductive behavior of the population.
The most significant factors affecting the birth rate are:
- The average level of education of the population and security. The birth rate in developed countries, as a rule, is lower than in developing countries, while the indicators of wealth and education are quite high;
- The role of children as a labor force in the family. In developing countries, where children are actively involved in the work of the whole family (especially in rural areas), the birth rate is usually high and tends to increase;
- The high cost of raising and educating children. A low birth rate is observed in economically developed countries and in those states where there is compulsory education, and child labor is prohibited by law. In these countries, the upbringing of children is costly because they cannot work until they reach adulthood;
- urbanization. The urban population has a significantly lower birth rate than the rural population. This is due to the influence of the processes described above on the reproductive behavior of the population;
- the average age of marriage. The birth rate is significantly reduced due to the restriction of the age of marriage to 25 years. This reduces the duration of the fertile period (15-44 years) by almost ten years and almost by half - the first phase of the fertile period, when most women give birth to children;
- availability of contraceptives. With the widespread availability of these funds, the birth rate is reduced;
- cultural and religious traditions. Methods of contraception and family planning may conflict with national traditions and religious beliefs that prohibit abortion and the use of contraceptives.
Along with the change in birth rates, there is currently a certain decrease in the death rate. The main reasons for this are: improving the nutrition of most groups of the population, reducing epidemics and infectious diseases, improving medical care, and promoting a healthy lifestyle.
An analysis of indicators characterizing the demographic situation in Russia and comparison with those in various countries of the world clearly demonstrates the influence of the political, economic, cultural and religious situation in a particular country on the process of population reproduction (Table 5.1).
When comparing different regions of the Russian Federation, it turns out that in the industrially developed regions of the country there is an insignificant birth rate comparable to the countries of Europe, a moderate level of infant mortality and a negative rate of natural increase. In territories where features of the archetype have been preserved (the Republic of Dagestan), the birth rate is still high, and in comparison with other regions of the country, a high level of natural population growth. Territories that are not involved in the process of industrial development are characterized by both traditional features of reproduction (high birth rate, which allows maintaining positive natural growth values) and the influence of a difficult economic situation (growing mortality and high infant mortality).
Obviously, in times of political and economic instability in countries, despite the type of population reproduction, there is a decrease in the birth rate and an increase in mortality, that is, the process of population depopulation. For example, from 1991 to 1995 out of 22 European countries (not counting the CIS countries), 9 (former countries of the socialist bloc) experiencing significant economic and political difficulties at that time experienced a process of population decline.
Table 5.1 Key demographic indicators by country in 2003
|
Population forecast in 2050 (million people) |
Population growth for 2003-2050 (forecast, %) |
Infant mortality rate (per 1000 births) |
Total fertility rate (average number of children per woman) |
Proportion of population aged 65 and over (%) |
|
|
Honduras |
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Brazil |
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Mongolia |
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